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Monday · May 03 2004

Textual analysis as a presidential forecasting method
Declarative = weak (the sky is blue)
Cumulative = better (the sky is blue and the sun is out)
Conditional/Serial = best (if the sky is blue then the sun is out)

Bush is making the step from declarative to cumulative. Kerry is a natural serialist. You can twist history to make many points, but the more complex thinkers have the winning record.

Archived: Political » May 2004
© 2004 Jason Keglovitz